强烈建议扑克研究“去数学化”

分析方法还是数学方法，这个是根本的。但是随着人的因素的加入，会影响数学假设，比如松的人的range会宽，紧的人range会窄，就会得出不同的ev。比如跟注站弃牌率低，紧的人弃牌率高，又分别得出不同的ev。虽然ev是灵活的，但方法还是分析ev，是数学方法。打牌的时候，算ev比较困难，但事后复盘的时候，去分析，再把它硬记下来，然后条件反射的运用在牌例上也是有好处的。

你就比方历史数据，以及牌面的认识，都会或多或少影响数学假设，但归根结底都是在计算ev。你也许会说，我靠，那么多不定因素，那还计算个屁ev啊，这里经验就很有作用了。通过打牌复盘，研究ev，会形成许多数学模型，然后就硬记下来，条件反射的套用就是咯。

我不确定你是否充分理解我的意思，表达不是我强项。摘抄husng上关于如何认识ev一段话：
How to Think About Expectation in Poker


In HUSNGs and all forms of poker, maximizing your results making your decisions based on what will produce the best outcomes over time. Maintaining a consistent focus on expected value goes a long way in helping you be as successful as you can be in the game (and in life, although that’s a subject for another day). However, I don't necessarily mean this in the way a lot of people do. Expectation calculations are often seen as a nerd’s domain, which sets up a false dichotomy between the math player, who seeks edge by pouring over frequencies and obsessing over calculations, and the feel player, who seeks edge through intuitive understandings of the flow of the game and his or her own natural expertise. While those types of people certainly exist, there are plenty of “math players” who are spectacularly bad at calculating expectation, and plenty of “feel players” who do it exceptionally well. Poker comes down to how well you interact with the math of the game, no matter what kind of player you see yourself as. The decisions you make have an expected value, and you always want to make the ones that will work out best over time.

Given that framework for looking at calculation, it is clear the nerds of the poker world do not have a monopoly on good analysis of expectation. Whatever your skillset, you benefit from thinking about your EV. This ebook aims to give you a framework to do that more effectively.

Let's start by talking about what good poker thinking means. Good poker thinking defines “+EV” as the best possible option, not just better than folding or better than not playing the game at all. It means not just being satisfied with having an edge, but seeking the largest edge possible. It does not want to stick to all of the strategies that have have combined to create a positive winrate in the past – it is always evolving, always questioning, always getting better. It is not afraid of being wrong, but rather staying wrong.

The most effective poker minds get rid of notions like “this is just my strategy” and “I’ve done this for a while and I’m a winning player, so I’m going to keep doing it”. They realize that playing different opponents calls for dramatically different approaches, and that it’s OK to play against a random opponent named “DogLoverAA” with a style that Phil Ivey would obliterate, as long as it makes the most money in that game
送给你，俺也在学习。

如果让我来说，扑克的最本质语言就是数学，数学是捏合扑克各种因子的纽带。

{:soso_e181:}

OK。在扑克中，疯子的信念最强吧，那么对付疯子数学上就没办法了吗？我只要range比你窄一点，我就是+ev，所以我总是拿到底对的时候，疯子只要敢下注，我就敢打到allin，时间越长，疯子总会输给我。为什么我有着信心，因为有着平均期望值。这算不算数学呢？当然某几盘，我也会输给疯子。

牌面当然要看，牌面和试探下注，都是一个目的能不能缩小range，对象分析也是确定range，进而确定ev。如果想通过勇气和下注向对方显示压力，第一这个不好控制，你说了不算，这只能取决于对方水平和思维等级。一旦预估对方的弃牌率，当然又有了新的ev。如果你要说通过思维等级次次都能crush别人不可能，ivey也做不到。

我们下次再讨论吧，我有点想睡觉。GL

的确。数据和数学方法是使不同现象具有可比性，最后定性又脱离了数据，就形成了经济分析报告（给老板或是决策者的。）
分析经济问题就是这么个过程，不同因素---定量数据分析---定性反映问题。有的直觉型的牌手，可能省略了数据分析过程，直接定性的反映了问题，但其中或许存在许多不确定性，当然经验也能产生真理。

youngtercel 发表于 2013-10-2 19:40
这个话题有点意思。

事实上，EV计算是扑克游戏的基础这一点毋庸置疑。

1、其实在我们思考中，已经深深打上了计算ev的印记。比如赔率大于胜率，就是+ev。我range比你窄，我就对你有优势，就是+ev。我胜率+估计弃牌率大于50%，这手action就是+ev。这些都是来自对ev的思考，是其简化。
2、我不能肯定ED MILLER是否有过度思考的嫌疑，的确短期应用可能会让你损失很大。但你可以记住几种通用的模型，特殊的临界状态。比如对bluff的比率，弃牌率的比率不一定按具体的百分比分类，可以按类型分类松凶，紧凶，松弱，跟注站，疯子大致计算。手牌的组合，可以简单的根据分类高牌，底对，中对，顶对......这样分类。
3、计算复杂ev只是在复盘里进行，实战用简化形式和模型。
4、在2+2的摘抄，肯定是在poker theory板块吧，那是研究扑克理论的，并非在实战板块的。
5、现场的马脚论，和计算ev并不矛盾，是互助的。