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Phil Hellmuth专栏
Jeff的培训－为9－9弃牌辩护
在上几个专栏里，我透露了我为Jeff Shulman参加WSOP主赛事决赛桌所制定的“培训计划”。大体上，当自己还有2000万筹码，盲注 125,000-250,000／ante20,000时，我建议Shulman采取超紧手策略，并在入局时要加注五倍大盲。Jeff的老爸Barry Shulman, 就是靠超紧手策略赢得了WSOPE的冠军，而我们三人都认为这是最好的策略。顺便说一下，我也预见到了Phil Ivey同样会采取超紧手策略。何必要去冒险呢？Shulman和Ivey是最好的牌手，只需耐心等待业余牌手按耐不住自毁长城即可。巨大的压力：创造历史，ESPN的电视转播，世界舞台的中央，数百万美元奖金的诱惑，这些都诱发了业余选手WSOP决赛桌上的自毁行为。
当盲注升至 200,000/400,000时，Shulman在Button拿到了9－9，并用170万首个入局。随后Ivey在大盲位置全推了690万筹码。 Shulman在这手牌之前有1590万，他数了690万筹码，足足想了一分钟。有必要回顾一下此前的情形：当Ivey是大盲时，Shulman在 Button位已经扔掉了很多手牌。这一次Shulman加注了，他认为Ivey应该知道自己有一手至少像样的牌。当时我在做Internet直播，说到：“Ivey看起来不是特别好的牌，我猜是类似A9不同花之类的。所以Shulman应该用A-Q，甚至A-J去call。”Shulman扔掉了自己的9－9，当时有人说Ivey的牌是K-Q（这是真的）。
虽然很多好牌手比如Barry Greenstein, “大嘴”Mike Matusow以及“教授”Howard Lederer都说很明显应该拿9－9去call，但我百分百站在Shulman一边，实际上我认为这是个明显的fold。当我做决定时我总是关注整体的图景。9－9够好么？是的。我会在其他比赛里call么？是的。因此第一感觉是这不是一个好的fold。但是这个fold使得Shulman仍然保留 1400万的筹码，这在决赛桌深筹码阶段的比赛中还说的过去，也使得他在与水平较低对手对决时有处于较有利的位置。但是如果call了，要么只剩700 万，要么剩2500万；但是700万的筹码将使Shulman处于不利的位置，并不得不拿一些较差的牌跟对手火拼。我赞同这个fold，因为我喜欢保存自己的筹码。扔掉9-9，耐心些，等其他对手被淘汰，到只剩四五个人的时候再瞅准好机会把所有筹码推出去。当我放弃一手大牌时我总是考虑这些因素。有一点要补充一下，Shulman很好地执行了自己的计划，几个小时后用自己的A-K全入，正好碰上了Cada的A-J。十个小时中只有一个全入，这是零风险的扑克。
一个小时后，只剩下5个人了，Shulman又用自己的J-J把Cada的3-3圈了进来。Cada这次走运，把Shulman淘汰了，但是如果 Shulman的J-J顶住了（他有4.5比1的优势），那么他就将在最后四人赛时坐拥3000万筹码！我喜欢这个9-9弃牌么？是的，尤其是后来的故事证明了这一点。Shulman本该拿到更多奖金么？是的，应该。Lessons with Jeff – Defending 9-9 Fold
In my last few columns I have been revealing my “Lesson plan” for Jeff Shulman at the WSOP’s (World Series of Poker) “November nine” (final table). Basically, with $20 million in chips, and blinds of $125,000- $250,000 and a $20,000 ante, I advised super tight play, with 5x opening bets when Shulman did enter a pot. Barry Shulman, Jeff’s father, just won the WSOPE playing the super tight strategy; and the three of us agreed that this was the best way to play. By the way, I correctly predicted that Phil Ivey would also use the super tight strategy. I mean, why wouldn’t he? Why gamble? Shulman and Ivey were the best players, so why not be patient and wait for a great situation to come up? Why not wait for the amateurs to melt, blow up, and give it away? Massive pressure: from making history, playing on ESPN and the world stage, and playing for millions of dollars cause a lot of self-destruction at the WSOP main event final table.
With the blinds at $200,000-$400,000, Shulman opened for $1.75 million on the button with 9-9, and Ivey moved all in from the big blind for $6.9 million more. Shulman had started the hand with $15.8 million, and he counted out the $6.9 million and hovered for a full minute. A little history: Shulman had folded a bunch of times on the button when it was Ivey’s big blind. Now that Shulman finally had raised it up, Shulman assumed that Ivey knew that he had at least a semi-strong hand. While doing the live Internet broadcast I said, “Ivey doesn’t look super strong, I mean I think he would move all in with A-9 off suit here. Thus Jeff should call with A-Q, and maybe even A-J.” Shulman folded his 9-9, and the word spread that Ivey had K-Q (true).
Although many great players like Barry Greenstein, Mike “The mouth” Matusow, and Howard “The professor” Lederer spoke out saying that they thought that it was a clear call with 9-9. I am 100% on Shulman’s side, and in fact I think it was a clear fold! I like looking at the whole story when I make these decisions. Did 9-9 figure to be good? Yes. Would I make that call in a side game? Yes. So the beginning of the story was that it was not a good fold. But it was a fold that would leave Shulman with $14 million, which was plenty of chips to play with considering the deep structure in place at the final table. A $14 million chip stack that he could use to put himself in a better situation against weaker players. A call however, would leave Shulman with either $7 million, or $25 million. $7 million would really cripple Shulman and put him in jeopardy, and probably force him to play some big pots with some weaker holdings. I love the fold, because I love to protect my chips. Fold the 9-9, let some time pass, let some other players get eliminated, and then put your chips all in when you have way the best of it and there are only four or five players remaining. I factor in these things when I make a big lay down! And it must be told that Shulman followed his plan to a tee, and found himself all in a few hours later with his A-K vs. Cada’s A-J. One all in pot in ten hours of play, that my friends, is risk free poker!
One hour after his all in, when they were down to five handed, Shulman had Cada all in with his J-J to Cada’s 3-3. Cada outdrew him, but if Shulman’s pocket jacks would have held up (they were a four-and-a-half-to-one favorite over Cada’s 3-3), then Shulman would have been four handed with over $30 million in chips! Do I like the 9-9 fold? Yes, especially when the rest of the story goes like it did. Did Shulman deserve better? Yes, he did.
Next week, I’ll talk about an even more controversial fold Shulman made with A-K pre-flop. |
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